Not a single day goes by where Charlotte does not bring up her birthday.  She has been talking about turning five since she turned four.  In picking her up from school, I often overhear her inviting her friends to her Princess party.  (Of course, what she gives, she can also take away.  She has also told me that so-and-so is not invited to her birthday party anymore.  It is funny to watch her use her party as a weapon.)  The challenge to all of this is that Charlotte’s birthday is still four months away!

If only every day were March 10.  Charlotte knows her days of the week, and she can recite every month.  But March 10 could be next week for all she knows.  So, I am going to buy her a calendar and telling her each day what day it is.  Hopefully, this will help her visualize that four months from now is still a while away.  With that said, I do think that it is cute that she is so eager to turn five.  I am also happy that she is already anxious to start kindergarten in August.  (In her mind, though, she starts kindergarten when she turns five.)

Speaking of Charlotte, she has a favorite iPhone app.  She loves Tinkerbell.  Hopefully, she will get the new Tinkerbell movie for Christmas….  In the meantime, I bought her an app called Disney Fairies Fly, where you can get the fairies to fly through various places within Pixie Hollow.  I found it fun myself, and Charlotte is starting to get the hang of it.  Now, she keeps asking me if I brought my phone every time we step into the car.  What was I thinking?

Today, I will relaunch The Moutray Chronicles focusing more on events and thoughts from my life with Charlotte.  In doing so, I will not discuss professional issues as much as in the past.  While I might occasionally discuss a paper, a speech, or my thoughts on small business economic issues, it will no longer be the primary mission of the blog.

Truth be told, there were some within the SBA who were never thrilled with my blending of personal and professional thoughts.  (The SBA’s Office of Advocacy has its own blog, which I also contribute to from time to time.)  As such, I have not written much on this site since the summer.  I contemplated giving up the site all-together, but decided that I will refocus it instead.  We’ll see how it goes.  Thanks for continuing to follow our chronicles and feel free to provide feedback, if you wish.

“I have fought a good fight, I have finished the race, and I have remained faithful. And now, the prize awaits me….” (2 Timothy 4:7-8)

This afternoon, I am one of the participants in an SAP seminar, “The Stimulus Package: What Does It Mean For Your Business?“  The other speakers are Steve King of Emergent Research and Sam Sliman of Optimal Solutions.  In addition to discussing the economy and different elements of the stimulus program for small businesses, a large part of the discussion will focus on entrepreneurs finding a “hidden stimulus” within their own business that could improve their overall bottom line without government assistance. 

As part of this event, Linked In featured a question from me on this issue of finding your hidden stimulus.  Here are some of the responses, which I think that you will find interesting:

• Focusing on improved lead generation and one-on-one marketing techniques to increase overall traffic into your business.
• Doing a better job of understanding what our clients want and need and communicating that with them.
• Learning how to better use social media websites, including the use of video, for advertising your business.
• Combing through existing contracts to see if there could be hidden savings or overcharges that might yield some additional dollars.
• Working with “troubled” accounts to implement solutions that work for both of you.
• Renegotiating benefit plans for your employees – with one respondent suggesting that he saved $80,000 per year by switching to a high-deductible health plan.
• Renegotiating debt agreements with the lender, or trying to find other ways to improve cash flow.
• Stimulating your employees – “Be truthful, transparent, and share the plan/vision about how we succeed in this economy.  People are willing to pitch in and work even harder, be innovative and creative.”  
• Not relying on government assistance; being entrepreneurial, creative, and doing what needs to be done “to keep the bills paid.”
• In light of fiscal stimulus plan, finding new opportunities for your business in terms of government contracting.

These are pretty good comments, and I am sure that we will hear more excellent advice during today’s webinar.  (It is still not too late to sign up.)

This afternoon, I learned that I was elected to a three-year term on the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE).  My term begins at the conclusion of the annual meeting, which takes place in St. Louis from October 10-13.  Click here for a listing of the current Board members.  As most of you know, I am also the current President of the National Economists Club, which is the local chapter of NABE.  (I will be busy.)

In my role at the SBA, I am often quoted in the media.  Last year, I was interviewed by Joe Kita for Men’s Health magazine.  The interview finally appears in the July/August issue in an article titled “You, Inc.” The bulk of the article highlights various entrepreneurs, showing how they have become successful “investing in themselves.”  There is one quote from me toward the beginning.

I remember when this interview took place.  Some of my colleagues were teasing me about being in Men’s Health. I told them not to worry.  They were not interested in seeing an economist with his shirt off….

On Saturday, Charlotte and walked in the Susan G. Komen Global Race for the Cure in Washington, DC.  This is the second year that we have walked it as part of Team Endurance, which was set up in memory of my late wife Laura by her friend Darlene Duffett.  A few of us wore the shirts that Darlene designed last year, complete with the Bible verse that Laura loved so much (and that I put on her gravestone marker):

“I have fought a good fight, I have finished the race, and I have remained faithful.  And now, the prize awaits me….” (2 Timothy 4:7-8)

This year, though, we ended up merging with another team, Propellin’ for Ellen, which was set up by members of our church (especially our friend Amy Allen) for Ellen Frazier, a church employee who is battling breast cancer.  Five of the six members of the pastoral staff joined us in the walk, and combined, our two teams raised over $4,000!

For me, the walk signified two things.  First, it reminded me of how wonderful our church family and friends have been to us over the past few years.  It is amazing to know how much people will do to support you when you really need them.  We learned that during Laura’s breast cancer, and Ellen Frazier is experiencing it during her current battle.

Second, when you see the mass of people walking the 5 kilometers through the heart of DC, you quickly get a sense of the enormity of it all.  Breast cancer affects so many people, from so many different walks of life.  The thousands of teams that woke up early (many of whom would have probably preferred staying in bed if it were not for supporting this important cause) had their own “Lauras” and “Ellens” to love, support, or remember, and they all wanted a cure for this dreaded disease.

Overall, it was the perfect day.  The weather was pleasant, and we all felt like we were doing something positive.  Charlotte, of course, is still too young to fully understand the significance of it all, but I am glad that she was out there, walking along with the rest of us.  One day, she will learn to appreciate the need to eradicate breast cancer, and hopefully, a cure can be found in her lifetime.  After all, that is really why we walk.

Update (6/9): This entry is now cross-posted on the Fight Pink website.  It was my friend Stacy Martello who had encouraged me to blog about the Global Race for the Cure.  Thanks for the kind words, Stacy.

Last month, I wrote a blog post about some of the “glimmers of hope” in the economy, echoing statements made by the President.  Since then, we have seen more evidence that the economy has turned some sort of corner.  That is not to suggest that things are terrific, but it does seem to indicate that perhaps the bottom has passed.  Here are some examples:

• A majority of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) see the economy turning around by year’s end, albeit with slower growth.  (NABE members can read the full survey here.)  This, of course, is consistent with statements made by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke earlier in the month.
• The U.S. Small Business Administration’s lending programs, 7(a) and 504 loans, which have been down drastically in terms of year-to-year figures, have both risen 25 percent since March 16, reflecting a turnaround in their fate.
• Several surveys have shown increases in overall optimism.  We have seen rises in the National Federation of Independent Business’s index of small business optimism and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey, for instance.  Each of these indices, however, are well below their traditional averages.
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 4 percent in the month of May, something that we all like to see, especially after the 54.5 percent fall we experienced when the market hit bottom in early March.

True, there are also some worrying signs (perhaps for another post), but it is nice to receive some good news for a change.

Today, we released the newest update to the Quarterly Indicators: The Economy and Small Business for the first quarter of 2009.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics also released the April employment numbers today, which were sobering.  The U.S. economy lost 539,000 jobs in the month of April, but more importantly, this was the sixteenth consecutive month of job losses.  Since this recession began in December 2007, the U.S. has lost 5.7 million nonfarm payroll jobs!  In that time frame, the unemployment rate has gone from 5.0 to 8.9 percent.  Worse yet, these numbers are expected to get worse before they get better.  (The positive spin from the day was that the 539,000 was better than in previous months, perhaps suggesting that the steep rate of decline has begun to slow down.)

Real gross domestic product in the first quarter declined by 6.1 percent, following the 6.3 percent fall in the previous quarter.  The worst damage came from sharp drops in investment (especially the non-residential sector), exports, and imports.  The global recession has impacted the overall volume of international trade.  This reverses the stellar export growth that we had been experiencing for several years up until the fourth quarter of 2008.  Likewise, non-residential construction had been quite resilient (even as the residential sector collapsed) until the second half of 2008.  The good news is that consumption increased an annualized 2.2 percent in the first quarter, showing that the consumer might be moving back into the market.

Despite this increase in spending, both the consumer and the small business sector remain very pessimistic about the overall economy.  Small business owners cite poor sales and access to credit as the biggest challenges that they face.  However, the most recent American Express Small Business Monitor survey shows that 37 percent of small businesses see growth opportunities in the next six months, with 28 percent planning to hire employees in the coming months.  This shows that entrepreneurs are able to spot opportunities even in uncertain times, and it perhaps suggests that better times might be coming.  Earlier in the week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testified in Congress that he is hopeful that the economy will improve by year’s end.  Let’s hope that he and the respondents to the American Express survey are correct.

In a couple weeks, we will release the next edition of our quarterly indicators for small business.  Much of that document will hinge on what we learn from the release of the first quarter 2009 real gross domestic product (GDP) figures, which will be released on April 29.  Given the severity of the recession, I would not expect for these numbers to be good.  The National Association of Business Economists (NABE) earlier this week released an industry survey showing that 93 percent of economists felt that real GDP would decline for the year as a whole.  With that said, the survey also suggests that declines in the economy are “abating.”  According to Sara Johnson of IHS Global Insight, “Key indicators — industry demand, employment, capital spending, and profitability — are still declining, but the breadth of the decline is narrowing.”

What does that mean for small businesses?  Over the past few weeks, we have seen some mixed surveys on the topic.   The April survey of small business owners from the National Federation of Independent Businesses continues to show a high degree of pessimism.  Its monthly optimism index is not far from its all-time low, set in 1980, and this has translated into anxiousness on the part of these owners to expand their business or (re)hire new workers.  In fact, their hiring intentions have become increasingly more negative since November, mirroring the decline in employment nationally.  We have lost 5.1 million jobs in the U.S. over the past fifteen months, and we can assume that a sizable portion of that was from small firms. 

Nonetheless, there are a couple surveys out which suggest that there might be some “glimmers of hope” over the course of this year.  Last month, the University of Maryland’s business school and Network Solutions introduced the Small Business Success Index.  According to its respondents, 67 percent were planning to invest in their businesses this year, bucking the recession; moreover, the small business owners in this survey tended to be more optimistic relative to the NFIB survey with nearly half suggesting that the economy will remain unchanged or improve in 2009.  This finding can also be found in the American Express Open Small Business Monitor, which finds that four out of ten entrepreneurs are both optimistic about the economy this year and feel that the economy provides opportunities for their businesses.  That is not to suggest that there have not been hardships.  Sizable portions of its respondents have had to take drastic steps such as instituting pay and hiring freezes and other ways of cutting costs. 

Nonetheless, despite the cautiousness in the down economy, there is also cautious optimism.  I was personally struck by this finding in the American Express survey.  There were 37 percent who said that the economy had presented them with opportunities.  Moreover, nearly “all of these glass-half-full entrepreneurs (92%) say that managing through the recession has made them a better business owner, compared to 77% overall.”  That is a pretty impressive finding, and one that suggests that even in tough times, entrepreneurs are able to adjust to make the current environment work for them.  That should give us all a “glimmer of hope” for our future.

Note: Only NABE members will be able to read the PDF version of its industry survey.